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Should IPCC SRES or RCP scenarios be used to model future soil organic carbon dynamics?

I'm leading a meta-analysis on global soil carbon dynamics and need to standardize the climate inputs from dozens of modeling papers. There's a mix of SRES (like A1B) and RCP (like 4.5 or 8.5) scenarios used across the literature from the last 15 years. For a forward-looking synthesis, which scenario family provides the most robust, internally consistent, and currently recommended climate forcing data?

 

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By Joshna Answered 2 years ago

For any new analysis, I would strongly recommend using the RCP scenarios. They are not just updates; they represent a fundamental shift. RCPs are concentration pathways that directly feed into the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) climate models, ensuring consistency between your climate drivers and the global models they come from. SRES are older socioeconomic storylines translated to emissions; the climate projections from them are less directly comparable. Furthermore, the latest CMIP6 uses SSP-RCP combinations. Using RCPs (especially 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) ensures your soil carbon work aligns with the most current climate community standards and future assessments.

 

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